Frankie Dettori can put down a marker for the Derby by landing the Chester Vase on favourite Arrest… with doubts over Aidan O’Brien’s Auguste Rodin after dismal run in the 2,000 Guineas
- Wednesday’s race at Chester is a stepping stone to Epsom on June 3
- Adelaide River is the only other Derby entry in the five runner line-up
- Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 10 runnings of the Chester Vase
The dismal run from Auguste Rodin in Saturday’s Qipco 2,000 Guineas at New- market means the picture for next month’s Betfred Derby is distinctly confused.
But one element of certainty may emerge if Arrest — Frankie Dettori’s probable ride in his final Derby — can win the Boodles Chester Vase.
The son of Frankel carries the Juddmonte colours that the 52-year-old Italian sported when landing the 2,000 Guineas on Chaldean. And Arrest will start odds-on favourite having finished last season with a head defeat at the hands of 2,000 Guineas fifth Dubai Mile in the Group One Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
He goes into the race third favourite for the Derby with some bookmakers.
Wednesday’s race is a stepping stone to Epsom on June 3 but with that showpiece just over three weeks away, Arrest needs to be putting down a marker.
Frankie Dettori can put down a marker for the Derby by landing the Chester Vase on Arrest
Aidan O’Brien-trained Adelaide River is the only other Derby entry in the five runner line-up and that Ryan Moore- ridden colt finished six lengths behind Arrest at Saint-Cloud.
He has to be respected simply because O’Brien has won eight of the last 10 runnings of the Chester Vase. But Adelaide River needs to step up plenty too as his 40-1 Derby ante-post odds suggest.
Barry Mahon, European racing manager for Juddmonte, said: ‘Arrest is in good form. I saw him on Saturday and physically he’s done well from two to three. He was a big frame last year and he is definitely a stronger horse this year. The travel to France has done him good.’
The Derby build-up is desperately in need of a statement performance with the race suddenly looking very open. Going into the 2,000 Guineas, the expectation surrounding O’Brien’s Auguste Rodin was huge.
He had been spoken of as a possible winner of the Triple Crown — you need to win the 2,000 Guineas, Derby and St Leger — and the hype as well as his two-year-old form suggested he might be special.
But Auguste Rodin only managed to beat two of the 14 starters home, including his stablemate Little Big Bear, who finished lame.
O’Brien has shrugged off the run as a ‘non-event’ and it was a messy race. Auguste Rodin’s pedigree also means he should be more at home at the Derby’s mile-and-a-half trip.
But it will take all of the skill that has won O’Brien eight Derbys plus a little bit more to turn Auguste Rodin into a Derby winner now.
He is still favourite at 5-1 with Paddy Power but that is largely because nothing else has delivered a decisive trial victory with the exception of Jessica Harrington’s previously un- heralded Sprewell, who won the Leopardstown Trial on Sunday.
We will see over the next eight days how much that picture changes.
Lining up in the Dee Stakes at Chester will be O’Brien’s San Antonio and Alder, trained by his son Donnacha, while Charlie Appleby is represented by Local Dynasty and Sir Michael Stoute by Passenger.
Neither of the last two currently hold Derby entries and there will also be anxious glances to the sky with potentially heavy showers hitting the track to make the ground better suited to jump racing.
It will also be very testing for Saturday’s Derby trial at Lingfield, where the rain thundered down yesterday on already heavy ground.
In line to run there is Appleby’s Newbury winner Military Order, brother of Adayar who took the Lingfield trial en route to his 2021 Derby win, O’Brien’s Gooloogong and Ed Walker’s Waipiro, who caught the eye with a comeback win at Newmarket last month.
Arrest goes into the race third favourite for the Derby with some bookmakers
Derby picture is confused following Auguste Rodin’s dismal run in the 2,000 Guineas
Then it is on to York next Thursday for the Dante Stakes, potentially the most important trial of the Derby build-up where James Ferguson-trained unbeaten Canberra Legend and Appleby’s Flying Honours head the cast.
But with the days ticking down to Derby Day, there are more ifs and maybes than definites.
Paddy Power spokesperson Paul Binfield said: ‘It is hard to think of a more open build-up to the Derby now Auguste Rodin has so much to prove again.’
If the bookmakers are struggling to get a handle on the Derby, what chance do the punters have?
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Sports Event Casino Handicap Description
|PK||0||It means not giving in to each other, and winning 1 point wins all.|
|0-50||0/0.5||Indicates that when the handicap team is tied with the transferee team, the team betting on the handicap loses 50%.|
|0 loss||0.5||Indicates that when the handicap team is tied with the transferee team, the team betting on the handicap loses.|
|1+50||0.5/1||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 1 point, the team betting on the handicap wins 50% and wins all 2 points.|
|1 level||1||Indicates that when the handicap team wins the handicap team by 1 point, the two teams will tie and win by 2 points.|
|1-50||1/1.5||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 1 point, the team betting on the handicap loses 50% and wins all 2 points.|
|1 loss||1.5||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 1 point, the team betting on the handicap loses all and wins by 2 points.|
|2+50||1.5/2||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 2 points, the team betting on the handicap wins 50% and wins all 3 points.|
|2 flat||2||Indicates that when the handicap team wins the handicap team by 2 points, the two teams will tie and win all 3 points.|
|2 losses||2/2.5||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 2 points, the team betting on the handicap loses 50% and wins all 3 points.|
|3+50||2.5||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 2 points, the team betting on the handicap loses all and wins all 3 points.|
|3 losses||2.5/3||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 3 points, the team betting on the handicap wins 50%, and all 4 points win.|
|3 levels||3||Indicates that when the handicap team wins the handicap team by 3 points, the two teams will tie and win all 4 points.|
|3-50||3/3.5||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 3 points, the team betting on the handicap loses 50% and wins all 4 points.|
|3 losses||3.5||When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 3 points, the team betting on the handicap loses all and wins all 4 points.|
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